Cancers with the largest change in risk include a 34% reduction for lung and bronchus and a 32% increase for corpus uterine (32%). We used age, period, and cohort models to inform projections.īetween 20, we predict the overall age-standardized incidence rate (proxy for population risk for being diagnosed with cancer) to stabilize in women (1%) and decrease in men (−9%). We used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program and the US Census Bureau to estimate average, annual, age-standardized cancer incidence rates and case counts (for all sites combined and top 22 invasive cancers) in the US for 2015 and to project cancer rates and counts to 2050. Projecting cancer incidence can help the cancer control community plan and evaluate prevention strategies aimed at reducing the growing number of cancer cases.
The number of adults entering the age groups at greatest risk for being diagnosed with cancer is increasing.
Projecting cancer cases can help the public health community plan and evaluate community intervention strategies aimed at reducing the growing number of cancer cases by reducing cancer risk across the lifespan. What are the implications for public health practice? The largest increase is anticipated in adults aged ≥75 years. In the United States, the number of adults entering the age groups at greatest risk for being diagnosed with cancer is increasing.īetween 20, we predict the total number of cancer cases to increase by almost 50% as a result of the growth and aging of the US population.
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